Reporting snapshot · 27 October 2026 (Asia/Karachi). The policy was announced at a press conference in Islamabad on Monday, 26 October. Two things may still change: the Rs4,500 rate was set on 23 October as an indicative price whose formal notification is still pending, and the announcement does not identify the agency that will buy the crop, the terms on which it will buy, or the money it will use.
What the government announced
Pakistan’s federal government said on Monday, 26 October, that it had formulated a national wheat policy, fixing the wheat support price at Rs4,500 per maund after consulting all the provincial governments and setting a strategic reserve of up to six million tonnes for the year. Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research Rana Tanveer Hussain made the announcement at a press conference in Islamabad alongside Khalid Mahmood Khokhar, the president of the Pakistan Kissan Ittehad, and the Press Information Department published the terms.
Three numbers carried the policy. Strategic wheat reserves of up to six million tonnes are to be maintained this year. More than 1.3 million tonnes of wheat have been provided to the provinces out of Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (Passco) stocks. And imports of up to 550,000 tonnes can be arranged, according to what provincial governments require.
Dawn reported that Hussain said the reserves would “ensure uninterrupted supplies and protect the country against potential market disruptions”, and that the higher support price would “enable the country to export wheat next year”. The Express Tribune carried the same announcement in its 27 October edition, reporting that the minister had ruled out shortages.
The Press Information Department described the policy as the first comprehensive national wheat policy in nearly four decades. It is the first such framework since the government dropped the support price and suspended large-scale procurement in April 2025, Dawn’s editorial board wrote on 26 October. That earlier period was governed by an interim wheat policy for 2025-26, under which a National Wheat Oversight Committee met in December 2025 to design a procurement mechanism built around private-sector buying, the ministry’s record of that meeting shows.
How the price was set
The Rs4,500 figure itself was announced on Friday, 23 October, when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif set an indicative price of Rs4,500 per maund for the 2027 crop, Rs1,000 above the Rs3,500 of the previous year. The decision followed consultations with President Asif Ali Zardari, PML-N president Nawaz Sharif, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz and Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah, Dawn reported, and Profit by Pakistan Today reported that the rate remained indicative and that implementation as a formally notified government procurement price was still subject to confirmation through official procedures.
What Monday added was the policy itself and the provincial sign-off. The press release described the price as fixed rather than indicative, and recorded that separate policies had been formulated on seeds, olives and biotechnology.
The number sits below two figures that have been competing all month. It is Rs500 below the Rs5,000 per 40kg that the Pakistan Kissan Ittehad demanded in September, when its president warned that growers might not sow the coming crop if a policy was delayed, Dawn reported. It is also below the price the government charges for its own grain: Sindh approved releasing government wheat at Rs12,500 per 100kg bag, or Rs5,000 per 40kg, from 15 October, Dawn reported.
What the policy changes, and what it does not
Two of the mechanisms work through volume rather than price. The reserve is a buffer: six million tonnes held through the season, with the federal government supplying provinces from Passco stocks and the provinces deciding how much to release. The import ceiling is the alternative to that buffer, allowing provinces to buy up to 550,000 tonnes abroad if they need it. Hussain said imported wheat would also cost roughly Rs4,500 a maund, which he used to argue that buying domestic grain was the better option for farmers.
The third element is a claim about the market rather than a policy instrument. Hussain described the recent rise in wheat prices as artificial and manipulated by “certain market elements”, said sufficient stocks were held, and expected prices to return to normal within days. The government said it was monitoring markets and would act against artificial shortages, speculative practices and unjustified price increases.
That claim lands against hard numbers on the cost of food. Official data released on Friday put short-term inflation at 11.85 per cent year on year in the week ending 22 October, with wheat flour up 36.49 per cent over the year and plain bread up 10.82 per cent, Dawn reported. Flour in cities was selling for between Rs160 and Rs190 a kilogram, and wheat prices had risen 150 per cent in five years, Dawn’s editorial board wrote on 26 October. In Karachi, wheat was selling at about Rs13,200 per 100kg in the week to 8 October, against Rs12,400 on October 1, with retail flour at Rs165 to Rs170 a kilogram, Dawn reported when Sindh approved its release price.
Why a price is not a floor
The gap that matters most is not the number but the buyer. Monday’s announcement does not say which agency purchases the crop, on what terms or from which funds. Dawn’s editorial argued that the third consecutive crop sown without a floor was unlikely to shift growers’ position, and pointed to Punjab’s experience in April, when banks would not finance the private-aggregator scheme and the firms bought only 160,000 tonnes against a 2.5 million tonne target, with prices falling anyway. Dawn reported that wheat was trading near Rs3,700 a maund against an official rate of Rs3,500, and that nine of the eleven participating firms had bought nothing at all.
KhabarWire has followed the wheat-and-flour price line through the autumn, from the Rabi season opening with a 25 per cent water shortage to Punjab’s Rs10bn flour subsidy as wheat and flour prices climbed, and on to the hunger score worsening to 25.5 in the 2026 Global Hunger Index. This policy is the federal answer to that file, and it is collected in our wheat and food prices hub.
What is still uncertain
Six million tonnes is a target for the year rather than a statement of what is held now. The release does not say how much of the 1.3 million tonnes already sent to the provinces has been sold on rather than stored, or what the reserve costs to carry.
The assertion that the price spike is manipulated also remains the government’s assessment. No independent audit of stocks or transactions was published alongside it.
And the export ambition depends on a surplus that has not been demonstrated. Pakistan has imported wheat in each of the past two years, and the policy’s own reserve and import arithmetic points the other way. What to watch is the notification of the price, the identity of the buyer, and whether the reserve is filled.
