Reporting snapshot · 18 October 2026 (Asia/Karachi). State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmad told foreign investors at the IMF–World Bank Group annual meetings in Bangkok that Pakistan's foreign-exchange reserves recovered from under $3 billion in February 2023 to $21.5 billion by 9 October 2026, that the SBP's forward liabilities fell from over $5.7 billion to below $1 billion, and that the build-up came from SBP purchases rather than new borrowing. This article is a dated synthesis of the SBP press release of 17 October and the Tribune, Daily Times, The Nation and Profit by Pakistan Today read-outs.
What the Governor told investors
SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad told senior executives from JP Morgan, Citibank, Jefferies, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Bank of America, MSCI, Standard Chartered and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group that “SBP’s FX buffers have also strengthened considerably, with official reserves recovering from less than $3 billion in February 2023 to $21.5 billion by October 9, 2026”, according to the SBP’s statement issued on Saturday, The Express Tribune reported on 18 October.
The Governor also disclosed that the central bank’s forward liabilities fell from over $5.7 billion to less than $1 billion. The FX purchases were “facilitated by an almost balanced current account in FY26” and were achieved while “the external debt stock has risen only marginally over the last three years”, the SBP statement said. The pitch ran from 12 to 17 October on the sidelines of the IMF–WBG annual meetings in Bangkok.
What $21.5bn of reserves actually looks like
The $21.47 billion of SBP-held reserves at 9 October 2026 — published the previous Thursday — was the highest single SBP holdings figure since FY21, Profit by Pakistan Today reported on 16 October. The headline number includes $21.4695 billion at the central bank and $5.3938 billion at commercial banks, for total liquid foreign-currency reserves of $26.8633 billion.
The path from $3 billion to $21.5 billion is the substance of the Governor’s “without new debt” claim. The IMF’s October 2026 fourth-review staff-level agreement described the current account as “broadly balanced in FY26” and gross reserves as having reached “about $21.5 billion” by end-September, KhabarWire reported. Remittances hit a monthly record of $3.6 billion in September, KhabarWire reported, providing the FX liquidity the SBP has been mopping up.
What forward liabilities are, and why cutting them matters
Forward liabilities are off-balance-sheet commitments the central bank enters into when it sells dollars for delivery on a future date at a pre-set rate. They are a residual from past balance-of-payments stress: when reserves were thin, the SBP sold forwards to manage exchange-rate volatility. A large stock is a vulnerability because each delivery drains spot reserves on a fixed date. Bringing the stock from $5.7 billion to below $1 billion means the SBP has either bought the forwards back, let them expire, or restructured them. The published read-outs do not disclose the breakdown between buy-backs, expiries and roll-overs. The figure changes the meaning of headline reserves: pre-forward reserves at 9 October 2026 were about $20.5 billion rather than the published $21.47 billion, although the SBP did not present the figures that way.
Inflation, growth and the fiscal picture
In the same meetings, the Governor said inflation declined from elevated levels in FY23 to “almost within the target range in FY26” despite an oil-price shock. Real GDP growth reached 3.7 per cent in FY26 and is projected at 3.5–4.5 per cent in FY27. The primary fiscal balance posted a third consecutive annual surplus in FY26 and the public debt-to-GDP ratio is on a downward trajectory, The Express Tribune reported. The SBP expects the current-account deficit to remain within 0–1 per cent of GDP in FY27, supported by reforms that have improved interbank FX liquidity, and the Governor reaffirmed that an IMF staff-level agreement has been reached on the EFF and RSF reviews.
What this means for the IMF programme
The $21.5 billion reserves figure does most of the work in the IMF’s macroeconomic scorecard for FY26. The fourth-review staff report listed reserves of “about $21.5 billion by end-September” alongside a broadly balanced current account, real GDP growth of 4 per cent in the first three quarters, and headline inflation of about 10.3 per cent in September, KhabarWire reported. The next inflection point is the IMF Executive Board’s consideration of the fourth review and the related $1.21 billion in EFF and RSF disbursements; that approval is not contingent on the reserves level, but the fourth-review staff report warned that risks remained “high”.
What is still uncertain
Several specifics are not in the published record. The composition of the forward-liability reduction — how much was bought back, how much expired, how much rolled over — was not disclosed. The IMF and WBG have not published a parallel press release; the figures rest on the SBP press release and on the Tribune, Daily Times, The Nation and Profit read-outs. The investor names were listed but the specific discussion topics with each institution were not separately reported, and the pre-forward-reserves adjustment is implicit, not explicit, in the SBP’s own reporting.
Wider context
The Bangkok investor meetings are part of a wider set of Pakistan-led events at the 2026 IMF–WBG annual meetings. Finance Minister Aurangzeb told investors on 14 October that Pakistan’s fiscal deficit had fallen to a 22-year low and on 16 October Ahad Khan Cheema was named the 2027 chair of the IMF and WBG boards of governors, KhabarWire reported, the first such chairmanship for Pakistan since 1953.
Sources & reporting notes
This is a synthesis of published reporting, not eyewitness reporting. Sources were reviewed on 18 October 2026 (Asia/Karachi). The SBP press release of 17 October is the primary record of the Governor's investor meetings; The Express Tribune and The Nation carry the full statement on 18 October, Daily Times carries a parallel summary on 17 October, and Profit by Pakistan Today carries the underlying weekly reserves data on 16 October.
- The Express Tribune — "SBP rebuilt reserves without new debt"Published 18 October 2026 · The full SBP press release of 17 October, including the $21.5 billion reserve figure, the under-$3 billion starting point in February 2023, the forward-liability cut, the inflation, GDP and current-account figures, the IMF-WBG meetings dates of 12 to 17 October, and the full list of nine investor institutions the Governor met.
- State Bank of Pakistan — Press release, "Governor SBP updates foreign investors on Pakistan's improving macroeconomic conditions"Dated 17 October 2026 · The SBP's primary record on which all subsequent news reports drew; the reserves figure, the forward-liability cut, the institutional list and the inflation/GDP data are all from this statement.
- Daily Times — "Pakistan's reserves reach $21.5 billion, says SBP governor"Published 17 October 2026 · Independent read-out from a second recognised Pakistani outlet of the SBP press release, confirming the under-$3 billion starting figure, the $21.5 billion at 9 October 2026, the forward-liability reduction, the 3.7 per cent FY26 GDP figure, and the 3.5–4.5 per cent FY27 range.
- The Nation — "Pakistan's economic fundamentals remain strong, says SBP chief"Published 18 October 2026 · A third independent Pakistani outlet carrying the SBP press release, with the same reserve, forward-liability, inflation and GDP figures and the same Bangkok-meeting dates.
- Profit by Pakistan Today — "Pakistan's foreign reserves rise to $26.86 billion as SBP holdings increase"Published 16 October 2026 · The underlying SBP weekly reserves data for the week ended 9 October 2026: SBP-held reserves of $21.47 billion, commercial-bank reserves of $5.39 billion, and a combined liquid total of $26.86 billion.
- KhabarWire — "Pakistan, IMF reach staff-level agreement on fourth review"Published 8 October 2026 · Context: the IMF's parallel fourth-review scorecard describing reserves as "about $21.5 billion by end-September" and the current account as "broadly balanced in FY26", the $1.21 billion EFF and RSF disbursement figure, and the IMF's "high risks" framing.
- KhabarWire — "SBP foreign-exchange reserves hit $16.055bn, highest since FY21"Published January 2026 · The closest prior KhabarWire standalone on the reserves trajectory, recording the $16.055bn figure at the start of January 2026 and the remittance-driven build-up that the SBP's October 2026 figures continue.
