Reporting snapshot · 10 October 2026. The State Bank of Pakistan released its September 2026 workers' remittances data on 9 October, confirming a 1.9 per cent month-on-month decline to $3.59 billion from August's $3.66 billion, and a 12.7 per cent rise over the $3.18 billion recorded in September 2025. The Jul-Sep first quarter of FY27 came in at $10.88 billion, up 14 per cent on $9.54 billion a year earlier and putting full-year inflows on track for around $43.5 billion. The next monthly release is due in early November.
What happened
Workers’ remittances to Pakistan reached $3.59 billion in September 2026, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said in its monthly press release dated 9 October. The figure was 1.9 per cent lower than the $3.66 billion recorded in August, but 12.7 per cent higher than the $3.18 billion of September 2025. Three months of inflows in Jul-Sep cleared $3.5 billion each — $3.63 billion in July, $3.66 billion in August and $3.59 billion in September — and lifted the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) to $10.88 billion. That was 14 per cent higher than the $9.54 billion recorded in the same quarter of FY26 and ran ahead of last year’s record pace.
The Topline Securities projection cited in the press’s coverage of the release put FY27 inflows at $44.7 billion, against an SBP projection of “around $44 billion” and the $41.6 billion achieved in FY26. The Jul-Sep run rate implies about $43.5 billion over the full fiscal year if the trend continues, a corridor in which the central bank and broker forecasts sit comfortably. Year-on-year growth in monthly inflows eased to 12.7 per cent in September from 16.5 per cent in August and 12.9 per cent in July; the May 2026 peak of $4.25 billion remains the high-water mark of the current cycle.
Where the money came from
Saudi Arabia was the only large corridor to post a month-on-month rise in September. Inflows from the kingdom reached $899.1 million, up 2.9 per cent on August and 19.7 per cent on the $751 million recorded in September 2025. Saudi Arabia remained the single largest source of remittances. Other GCC economies rose 4.7 per cent to $342.1 million, with Oman, Qatar and Kuwait all higher, while the United Arab Emirates was almost flat at $748.5 million (down 0.2 per cent on August, up 10.5 per cent year-on-year). Saudi Arabia and the UAE together accounted for 46 per cent of September remittances; with the rest of the GCC, the Gulf share stood at 55 per cent.
The month’s softness was concentrated in Europe. Remittances from the United Kingdom fell 8.6 per cent to $515.1 million, and EU inflows dropped 9.7 per cent to $447.7 million, with Italy down from $152.9 million to $133.5 million and Greece from $56.8 million to $48.6 million. France, Spain and Germany were also weaker. By contrast, the United States held up: US-sourced inflows reached $305.9 million, down 0.9 per cent on August but up 13.7 per cent year-on-year. The Dubai-Abu Dhabi split inside the UAE was uneven, with Dubai rising 30.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $1.83 billion and Abu Dhabi falling 34.5 per cent to $331 million, even as Abu Dhabi itself rose month-on-month from $91.1 million to $104.5 million.
Over the Jul-Sep quarter, the United Kingdom and the United States were the strongest large corridors. UK inflows rose 19.4 per cent to $1.63 billion, the fastest among the major sources, and US inflows rose 15.5 per cent to $931 million, after declining in the previous year’s comparison. Australia (up 9.5 per cent), Canada (up 11.7 per cent) and the EU as a whole (up 9.8 per cent to $1.41 billion) all expanded, with smaller corridors growing faster: Ireland rose 24.4 per cent, Japan 42.6 per cent and South Korea 21.9 per cent. Together, the UK, EU, US, Canada and Australia supplied about 40 per cent of September remittances, broadly unchanged from earlier in the year.
Why it matters
Remittances are the single largest source of foreign-currency inflows for Pakistan, and at a $3.6 billion a month pace they continue to do the heavy lifting on the current account. The SBP has credited sustained inflows for the rebuild in foreign-exchange reserves and for narrowing the external gap. As KhabarWire reported on 8 October, the IMF’s fourth-review staff-level agreement described the current account as broadly balanced in FY26 and noted reserves of about $21.5 billion at the end of September, close to the $21.4 billion figure the finance minister cited publicly on 7 October (see IMF fourth-review story). The September data keep that trajectory comfortably on track for the first months of FY27.
The Gulf corridor matters for reasons beyond the numbers. Around two million Pakistanis work in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the other GCC states, and their remittances underwrite household consumption, support foreign-exchange reserves and offset the bulk of the goods trade deficit. The Saudi-led cluster of inflows has held up despite the disruption from the US-Iran conflict and the Houthi campaign — both of which have put Saudi Arabia under intermittent ballistic-missile and drone attack since 2024. The Kingdom’s 19.7 per cent year-on-year rise in September suggests that bilateral work and family inflows have absorbed that disruption better than the more cyclical construction and hospitality flows might have done in earlier shocks.
The composition of inflows also matters. The United Kingdom and the United States together supplied 22 per cent of the September total, against 12 per cent from the rest of the EU. A growing US and UK share, alongside Saudi Arabia, reduces the economy’s exposure to any single labour market and is a structural shift that predates FY27 — the EU share has been gradually compressed for several quarters. Brokers and economists quoted in the press’s coverage of the release noted that the policy question is now skilled migration and student-to-worker routes, not only Gulf labour exports, and that the official data broadly vindicate the government’s investor-outreach pitch.
What is still uncertain
The biggest open question is whether the September slowdown is a one-month wobble or the start of a softer run. The 1.9 per cent month-on-month decline came from the UK and the EU rather than the Gulf, where Saudi Arabia actually rose. That points to a European rather than Pakistani explanation: weaker euro-zone growth, a stronger US dollar and tighter EU labour markets for unskilled workers have been cited as headwinds. The SBP release does not break out informal or “hawala” inflows, so the formal data could understate true household receipts — a caveat worth keeping in mind, particularly with the September launch of the Pasban Remittance Reward Scheme.
The FY27 trajectory also depends on assumptions the release does not verify. Topline Securities’ $44.7 billion forecast assumes the dollar value of GCC and US inflows holds up, no fresh Middle East shock interrupts migration corridors and the rupee stays competitive enough to discourage a switch to informal channels. A noticeable further softening of the EU or a wider Gulf conflict would dent those assumptions, while a faster rebuild of the formal channel — through Roshan Digital Accounts and the Pasban scheme — would lift them. The next monthly release, due in early November, will be the first real test of whether the Sep run rate stabilises near $3.6 billion or drifts lower.
Sources & reporting notes
This is a synthesis of published material, not eyewitness reporting. Sources were reviewed on 10 October 2026.
- State Bank of Pakistan — Workers' Remittances for September 2026 (press release)Published 9 October 2026 · Primary source: the SBP's monthly remittances bulletin, underlying the $3.59bn September 2026 reading, the Jul-Sep FY27 total of $10.88bn, the corridor split and the YoY comparison with September 2025.
- The Express Tribune — Remittances cool to $3.6b in SeptPublished 10 October 2026 · Independent corridor-level read of the SBP release, including the UK/EU softness, Saudi Arabia's rise, the Dubai-Abu Dhabi split and the Topline Securities $44.7bn FY27 projection.
- State Bank of Pakistan — official websiteAccessed 10 October 2026 · Used to verify the 9 October press-release entry, the released-septica 9 published press release and to confirm the date of the underlying bulletin.
