Reporting snapshot · 20 October 2026 (Asia/Karachi). The National Accounts Committee approved the revised estimates at its 118th meeting at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics in Islamabad on Monday, 19 October 2026. The figures below are the committee's latest estimates and remain subject to future revision. The import-data revision changes the measured level of GDP and related ratios; it does not represent new production in the April–June quarter.
What the National Accounts Committee approved
Pakistan’s economy grew 3.65% in the fiscal year ended June 2026, slightly below the 3.70% estimate the government published in May, after the National Accounts Committee (NAC) revised the annual and quarterly national accounts. The committee put growth in the fourth quarter, April to June, at 2.0%, down from about 6.1% in the same quarter a year earlier, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
The quarterly path shows how much the year depended on the middle months. The NAC revised growth to 3.89% in July–September, 4.31% in October–December and 4.42% in January–March. Its previous estimates for those quarters were 3.92%, 4.05% and 3.99%. Growth in the year before, FY25, was also marked down to 3.11% from 3.18%.
The latest estimates put the size of the economy at US$450.4 billion and per capita income at US$1,896. The bureau did not present the fourth-quarter slowdown as a uniform weakening. Agriculture grew 3.71% and services 3.62%, while industry contracted 4.70% after growing about 20% in the same quarter of FY25. Within industry, large-scale manufacturing edged up 0.41%, construction grew 3.52% and mining and quarrying rose 8.90%; electricity, gas and water supply fell 33.19%.
For the full year, the sectoral revisions were mixed. Agriculture was revised up to 3.50% from 2.89%, helped by important crops and other crops. Industry was revised down to 3.34% from 3.51%, and services to 3.81% from 4.09%. The Dawn newspaper reported that the revision left Pakistan broadly in line with multilateral forecasts, including the International Monetary Fund’s 3.6% projection for FY26.
Why the fourth quarter slowed
Part of the explanation is arithmetic. The fourth quarter of FY25 was exceptionally strong, so the same quarter of FY26 was always going to look weak against it. The compression was sharpest in electricity, gas and water supply, where the bureau pointed to a high base, lower subsidies and a higher price deflator. The Express Tribune reported that the sector’s contraction followed base growth of more than 120% a year earlier.
The weakness was not only statistical. The Tribune, citing the bureau’s statement, linked the industrial pullback to a prolonged period of fiscal stabilisation, higher fuel prices and weaker demand as the Middle East conflict raised costs. Large-scale manufacturing grew just 0.41% in the quarter, even though some manufacturing groups, including automobiles, had recorded strong annual growth. The annual industrial growth rate still depended on the stronger first three quarters.
That distinction matters for how the number should be read. A 2% quarterly reading does not mean the economy shrank, and it does not erase the growth recorded earlier in FY26. It does show that momentum faded at the end of the year, as the government managed the fallout from higher energy costs and the FY27 budget. The 3.65% annual figure is also below the 4% estimate the government had used earlier, a gap the finance ministry will have to explain in the next review cycle.
The import-data revision behind the numbers
The NAC also approved a revision of import data for five fiscal years, from FY21 to FY25, after differences emerged between the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and the Pakistan Single Window system. The Tribune reported that the changes added a cumulative $14.8 billion to measured imports, including $6.1 billion in FY25, when the import bill was revised to $64.5 billion, and $5.1 billion in FY24, when it rose to $59.9 billion.
The revision is more than a trade-statistics cleanup. Imports feed into the commodity-flow estimates used to calculate wholesale and retail trade, and therefore affect the level and composition of GDP, the size of the economy and per capita income. The newspaper said it had reported a roughly $11 billion discrepancy in import figures for two fiscal years in 2025, after which the government and the IMF began scrutinising the data.
For readers, the practical effect is that some ratios will move even where the underlying activity did not. A higher measured import bill can widen the recorded trade deficit and change the denominator used for tax, investment and current-account comparisons. It can also alter the base for future growth calculations. The bureau said the shift from the old data system to the Pakistan Single Window was relatively small in the first three years covered and became significant in FY24 and FY25.
What it means for the next fiscal year
The revised FY26 numbers land as Pakistan tries to keep its IMF programme on track and persuade investors that macroeconomic stability is translating into output. The IMF’s staff-level agreement in October projected FY26 growth at 3.6% and emphasised fiscal discipline, revenue collection and energy-sector reform. The first-quarter FY27 trade figures already showed a wider deficit, which makes the import revision relevant to the external accounts as well as to GDP.
The earlier Q2 FY26 GDP report covered the industrial rebound in October–December, when manufacturing and construction were expanding. The new release describes a different turn: a strong first half followed by a much weaker finish. That makes the fourth quarter the more useful signal for FY27, when the base effects that flattered earlier comparisons will be smaller.
What is still uncertain
These are provisional national accounts, not a final reckoning. The NAC has already revised FY25 and the first three quarters of FY26, and further changes to trade, crops, manufacturing and services data can move the annual figure again. The import revision changes the measured economy as well as the growth rate, so comparisons with earlier vintages of GDP data are not straightforward.
The outlook also depends on factors outside the statistical release: international oil prices, the duration of the Middle East conflict, the pace of fiscal consolidation and the next IMF review. The bureau’s Q4 figures do not provide a seasonally adjusted quarterly path, and the 2% reading should be treated as a year-on-year comparison against an unusually strong base. The next quarterly release will show whether the fourth-quarter slowdown was a temporary base effect or the start of a slower phase.
Sources & reporting notes
This is a synthesis of published material, not eyewitness reporting. Sources were reviewed on 2026-10-20.
- Pakistan Bureau of Statistics — National Accounts Committee (NAC) MeetingPublished 19 October 2026 · Official FY26 growth of 3.65%, Q4 growth of 2.0%, revised quarterly rates, the US$450.4bn economy and US$1,896 per capita income.
- Dawn — GDP growth revised down to 3.65pc as country falls short of targetPublished 20 October 2026 · Annual sectoral revisions, the FY25 revision to 3.11%, the comparison with multilateral forecasts, and the per-capita-income context.
- The Express Tribune — Fourth-quarter growth slows to 2%Published 20 October 2026 · Q4 sectoral detail, the high-base explanation, the $14.8bn import-data revision and the change from PRAL to Pakistan Single Window data.
