Reporting snapshot · 2 October 2026. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics released its monthly Consumer Price Index review for September 2026 on 1 October, two days before this article was prepared. Headline inflation eased to 10.3 per cent year-on-year (10.26 per cent on the National Consumer Price Index) from 11.1 per cent in August, but stayed in double digits for the sixth straight month because higher electricity, fuel and transport costs offset a sharp slowdown in food prices. This account is a synthesis of the PBS September 2026 monthly review and the data as reported by Profit by Pakistan Today and The Express Tribune on 1 and 2 October. It follows [KhabarWire's earlier coverage of the return to double-digit inflation in April](/blog/pakistan-inflation-double-digits-april-2026-05-02/), when the YoY reading first crossed 10 per cent. The IMF mission in Islamabad for Pakistan's fourth Extended Fund Facility review is using the data to gauge inflation and energy-price pass-through against the Fund's programme assumptions.
What happened
Headline Consumer Price Index inflation eased to 10.3 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, down from 11.1 per cent in August and nearly twice the 5.8 per cent recorded a year earlier, Profit by Pakistan Today reported on 1 October, citing the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics’ Monthly Inflation Review for September 2026. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI rose 1.3 per cent in September, against 1.2 per cent in August and 2.1 per cent in September 2025, the bureau said.
The more precise National Consumer Price Index, which uses different weights, put inflation at 10.26 per cent year-on-year and 1.27 per cent month-on-month, Profit added. Urban inflation eased to 10.1 per cent year-on-year from 10.4 per cent in August, while rural inflation slowed more sharply to 10.5 per cent from 12.2 per cent. Average national CPI inflation for the first quarter of FY27 (July–September) stood at 10.20 per cent, compared with 4.30 per cent in the same quarter of FY26, reflecting the cumulative impact of energy and fuel costs on household budgets.
The PBS attributed the persistent double-digit print to energy and transport. Transport recorded the sharpest increase among the major national CPI groups, rising 27.43 per cent year-on-year and 5.75 per cent month-on-month; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 12.39 per cent year-on-year and 3.05 per cent month-on-month. Food and non-alcoholic beverages, which carry a 34.58 per cent weight in the national CPI, rose 8.20 per cent year-on-year but only 0.19 per cent during September. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy, remained below the headline print, with urban core at 8.6 per cent and rural core at 8.1 per cent.
Why it matters
The reading confirms that the cost-of-living squeeze on Pakistani households has eased only at the margin, even as food prices have moderated. The Express Tribune reported on 2 October that expensive power and fuel were offsetting the positive impact of lower food prices, with the energy group accelerating to 11.5 per cent year-on-year in urban areas and 13.1 per cent in rural areas. Petrol was 39 per cent more expensive than a year earlier in September, the PBS said, with the per-litre price reaching Rs389.4 on the Thursday when the bulletin was compiled, while high-speed diesel was at Rs400 a litre; both prices have moved further since, as KhabarWire reported on the 2 October daily revision.
For monetary policy, the data complicates the State Bank’s case for an early cut. The bank left its policy rate unchanged at 11.5 per cent in July, with the monetary policy committee citing elevated inflation, geopolitical risk and weather-related supply uncertainty; September’s reading remains well above the 5–7 per cent target band, and wholesale inflation accelerated further, with the Wholesale Price Index rising 13.33 per cent year-on-year in September, up from 11.8 per cent in August and 0.6 per cent a year earlier, Profit reported. Wholesale kerosene oil surged 78.93 per cent year-on-year, diesel oil 61.45 per cent and motor spirit 42.77 per cent.
The Fiscal side is no easier. The government told the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, 29 September that inflation would stay below its 8.2 per cent FY27 target if Brent crude stabilises at around $80 a barrel and the Middle East conflict de-escalates by October 2026, Reuters/APP reported via Profit. The Planning Commission’s underlying assumption had been 7–8 per cent, with a most-likely outcome of 7.5 per cent; September’s 10.3 per cent print puts the budget arithmetic under pressure going into the IMF mission’s fourth EFF review in Islamabad, which opened in Karachi on 23 September and moved to ministerial talks the following week.
What is still uncertain
The September print does not yet incorporate the impact of the 1 October petrol hike and 1 October diesel cut, which took effect at midnight on 1 October and will feed into October’s CPI data due in early November. It is not yet clear how long the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the closure of Qatari LNG cargoes will keep fuel and power costs elevated; the IMF has urged Pakistan to adjust exchange-rate and interest-rate policies to contain inflation, as reported by Profit, while the State Bank and the Finance Division have argued the current stance is appropriate. The PBS does not publish a forward forecast in the monthly review, and the central bank’s next Monetary Policy Committee statement, expected in the second half of October, will give the first read on whether the MPC judges the September inflation as consistent with gradual disinflation or as evidence that the policy rate should stay elevated for longer.
Sources & reporting notes
This is a synthesis of published material, not eyewitness reporting. Sources were reviewed on 2 October 2026. Headline figures and group-level breakdowns are as published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics in its Monthly Inflation Review for September 2026 on 1 October 2026.
- Pakistan Bureau of Statistics — Monthly Inflation Report for Sep 20261 October 2026 · Primary record: confirms the 10.3% headline CPI YoY for September 2026, the 1.3% MoM increase, the 27.43% transport group YoY, the 12.39% housing/utilities/fuels group YoY, the urban/rural breakdown, the 10.20% Q1-FY27 average, the WPI at 13.33% YoY, and the September 2025 comparison at 5.8%.
- Profit by Pakistan Today — Pakistan's inflation stays above 10% in September 2026 as fuel, transport costs surge1 October 2026 · Independent contemporaneous reporting on the PBS release: confirms the 10.3% CPI YoY, 10.26% NCPI YoY, the 27.43% transport and 12.39% housing/utility/fuels increases, the urban/rural breakdown, the 8.20% food YoY, the 13.33% WPI YoY, the 39% petrol YoY, the 11.5%/13.1% urban/rural energy acceleration, and the Finance Division's 7–8% FY27 inflation projection briefed to the IMF.
- The Express Tribune — Energy keeps CPI in double digits2 October 2026 · Independent reporting on the same PBS release: confirms the 10.3% headline, the 1.3% MoM, the food-driven slowdown to 8.1% urban / 7.7% rural, the energy acceleration to 11.5% urban / 13.1% rural, the 39% petrol YoY, the 30% transport-services YoY, the 33% electricity YoY, and the Finance Division's 7–8% / 7.5%-most-likely FY27 inflation path briefed to the IMF on 29 September.
