What happened
Pakistan’s gross domestic product grew 3.89 per cent year on year in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, the fastest second-quarter expansion in four years, the National Accounts Committee (NAC) reported on Thursday, 2 April 2026. The provisional estimate, approved at the committee’s 116th meeting in Islamabad, was reported by Profit and Nukta.
Industry drove the quarter, expanding 7.40 per cent after 0.78 per cent growth a year earlier. Large-scale manufacturing rose 5.71 per cent, led by automobiles (up 52.95 per cent), transport equipment (40.81 per cent) and petroleum products (24.65 per cent). Electricity, gas and water supply grew 15.11 per cent and construction 10.53 per cent, supported by an 8.44 per cent rise in cement production. Mining and quarrying contracted 2.46 per cent on weaker gas and marble output.
Agriculture grew 1.76 per cent, helped by livestock, forestry and fishing even as major crops including cotton fell. Services expanded 3.69 per cent, led by public administration, social services and healthcare.
Why it matters
The reading is the strongest second-quarter expansion in four years and points to a broadening recovery in an economy that had stabilised under Pakistan’s International Monetary Fund programme. The committee revised first-quarter FY26 growth down to 3.63 per cent from 3.71 per cent, leaving the first-half average at 3.76 per cent. It also nudged earlier estimates, cutting FY24 growth to 2.62 per cent and FY25 growth to 3.06 per cent.
The industrial rebound is concentrated in a few import-sensitive sectors. Automobile and transport-equipment output can be volatile because it depends on imported kits and components, and the quarter’s electricity and gas expansion was attributed in part to higher subsidies and a fall in the consumer price index for electricity. Analysts quoted by Profit projected full-year GDP growth at between 3.5 and 4 per cent, with weak agriculture and external pressures the main risks.
What is still uncertain
The 3.89 per cent figure is provisional and can be revised as more complete data on crops, manufacturing and trade becomes available, as happened to the earlier quarters. The decline in major crops, including cotton, leaves the farm sector’s contribution to the full-year number unclear, and the durability of the double-digit growth in electricity, gas and construction depends on subsidy and price decisions taken through the rest of the fiscal year.
Sources & reporting notes
This is a synthesis of published material, not eyewitness reporting. Sources were reviewed on 2026-04-03.
- Profit by Pakistan Today — Pakistan's economy expands 3.89% in Q2, industry leads recoveryPublished 2 April 2026 · National Accounts Committee headline figure, sectoral growth rates, Q1 FY26 revision to 3.63 per cent, half-year average, and earlier-year revisions.
- Nukta — Rise in industry output pushes Pakistan growth rate to 3.89% in 2QFY26Published 2 April 2026 · Detail on the 116th NAC meeting in Islamabad, large-scale manufacturing sub-sectors, construction and cement output, quarterly revisions, and FY25 GDP revision to 3.06 per cent.
