Reporting snapshot · 3 October 2026. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics published its September and first-quarter merchandise trade summary on 2 October. The figures are provisional: the bureau notes that customs data for September was still awaited, and news reports rounded the totals. This article uses the PBS figures and flags where the government's budgeted export target differs from a larger projection it gave during talks with the International Monetary Fund.
What happened
Pakistan’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $10.792 billion in July–September, the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27, up 15.13 per cent from $9.374 billion in the same quarter last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The bureau’s monthly summary, published on 2 October, put first-quarter exports at $8.423 billion, up 10.84 per cent, and imports at $19.215 billion, up 13.21 per cent.
The Express Tribune reported the quarterly gap as $10.8 billion, an increase of about $1.4 billion over the same period a year earlier. Profit by Pakistan Today reported the same figures, describing the gap as widening by more than 15 per cent to $10.79 billion.
September followed the same pattern. Exports rose 17.61 per cent year on year to $2.939 billion, but imports rose 11.05 per cent to $6.494 billion, leaving a monthly deficit of $3.555 billion. That was 6.15 per cent wider than in September 2025 and 7.99 per cent wider than in August 2026, when the gap was $3.292 billion.
Why the gap widened
The arithmetic is simple: over the quarter, imports grew about 2.4 percentage points faster than exports. In the month of September, the export rebound was sharper than the rise in imports, but the absolute difference between what Pakistan sold abroad and what it bought still set a larger monthly deficit.
Energy did much of the damage. The Express Tribune, citing the PBS data, reported that the crude-oil import bill rose 40.5 per cent in value during July and August while volumes rose only 13.7 per cent, reflecting higher international prices during the Middle East conflict. In the same two months, imports of refined petroleum products fell 26 per cent, LPG imports rose 47 per cent and LNG arrivals fell 28.6 per cent.
The quarterly deterioration is larger than the $1.2 billion tranche Pakistan expects to receive from the International Monetary Fund in November. One quarter’s extra import bill, in other words, is bigger than a scheduled external financing inflow — a comparison the Tribune drew to underline the pressure on the external accounts.
The government has told the IMF that continuing tariff “rationalisation” under the National Tariff Policy would lower production costs and improve industrial competitiveness, and that Rs88 billion set aside for concessional lending to exporters at 4.5 per cent would improve liquidity, cut financing costs and support exports.
The export target and the IMF review
The data land in the middle of the IMF’s review of Pakistan’s $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, with talks in Islamabad covering the programme and a climate-finance facility. The budget for this year sets an export target of $32.5 billion and assumes imports of $70 billion. In its discussions with the IMF, however, the government projected goods exports of $34 billion, against $30.8 billion last year, after exports fell about 6 per cent in FY26 to just under $31 billion. The two numbers do not match, and the first-quarter run rate — roughly $2.8 billion a month — sits below what either would require over twelve months.
September’s $2.939 billion was an improvement, and exports have long clustered between $2.5 billion and $3 billion a month. The Tribune noted that even a depreciation of about Rs100 against the dollar in recent years did not deliver a large export boost, and that successive export-finance incentives had not decisively changed that pattern. The FBR’s tax-collection data show a parallel gap between paperwork and receipts, which matters because the programme’s fiscal targets assume stronger trade-related revenue.
On the import side, the government expects austerity and energy-conservation measures to temper fuel demand. But Secretary Finance Imdad Ullah Bosal told the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance that the fuel-conservation policy would save only about Rs700 million over three months at current prices — a rounding error against the quarterly import bill, which exceeded $19 billion.
What is still uncertain
Several caveats apply. The PBS describes the September figures as provisional, and its own spreadsheet notes that data from the customs directorate and the Federal Board of Revenue for September “is still awaited”, so the export and import totals may be revised. Rounding means press totals of $10.79 billion and $3.56 billion differ slightly from the underlying $10.792 billion and $3.555 billion.
Whether the September export rebound is sustained is untested: one month of 17.6 per cent growth does not overturn a year of flat receipts. The size of the import bill also depends heavily on oil prices and shipping costs tied to the Middle East conflict, neither of which the government controls. And it is not yet clear how much of the crude-oil increase reflects higher volumes rather than prices; the PBS summary does not break the trade figures down by commodity, and the volume-and-value detail in the coverage covers only July and August.
The larger question is whether an import-led quarter undermines the export-led growth story the government is telling the IMF. The first quarter shows the deficit moving the wrong way at the start of a year in which the budget assumes both faster exports and much larger imports. Until the October and November data arrive, the trend is a warning rather than a verdict.
Sources & reporting notes
This is a synthesis of published material and official statistics, not eyewitness reporting. The cited pages were reviewed on 3 October 2026. The headline quarterly and monthly totals come from the PBS summary spreadsheet; the commodity detail and the financing comparisons come from independent reporting by The Express Tribune and Profit by Pakistan Today. The figures are provisional and the government's export target has been stated differently in different documents.
- Pakistan Bureau of Statistics — "Monthly Summary on Foreign Trade Statistics for September, 2026"Published 2 October 2026 · Primary record and data file: September exports of $2,939 million and imports of $6,494 million; the $3,555 million monthly deficit; and the July–September totals of $8,423 million in exports, $19,215 million in imports and a $10,792 million deficit, with percentage changes. The accompanying note states that September customs data was still awaited.
- The Express Tribune — "Trade deficit widens to $10.8b in first quarter"3 October 2026 · Independent report of the PBS data, the crude-oil value and volume changes, the comparison with the November IMF tranche, the FY27 export and import targets, the government's submissions to the IMF, and the fuel-conservation saving estimate.
- Profit by Pakistan Today — "Pakistan's trade deficit widens 6% to $3.56bn in September"2 October 2026 · Independent confirmation of the quarterly deficit of $10.79 billion (up more than 15%), the September deficit of $3.56 billion, and the September export and import totals and year-on-year changes.
