Reporting snapshot · 30 October 2026 (Asia/Karachi). The rates below apply to Friday only under a mechanism that reprices fuel every morning, so another publication can move them again within days. The main limitation is that no statement explains the decision in policy terms: the Petroleum Division attributes the revision to international market movements, and the regulator's publication only sets out the arithmetic.
What changed on 30 October
The Petroleum Division notified on Thursday evening that high-speed diesel would rise 85 paisa a litre to Rs400.67 from Friday, 30 October, while petrol would be held at Rs377.91, Profit by Pakistan Today reported, which attributed the revision to changes in Platts benchmark rates, premiums and incidental costs. The Express Tribune reported the same two figures from the same notification.
The regulator’s own document is the more granular version of the decision. OGRA’s price publication effective 30 October 2026 sets petrol at Rs377.91 a litre and high-speed diesel at Rs400.67, excluding the cost of moving fuel from a company depot to the pump.
The direction has reversed. On 29 October both fuels rose, petrol by Rs1.85 and diesel by Rs1.75, which KhabarWire’s account of that revision read line by line from OGRA’s publication then in force. Friday moved only diesel. Taken together with the 28 October publication, diesel has climbed Rs2.60 in two days, from Rs398.07 to Rs399.82 and now Rs400.67, while petrol has risen Rs1.85 and then stopped.
Where the 85 paisa came from
Comparing OGRA’s 29 and 30 October publications, the dollar inputs behind diesel changed in one line only. The seven-working-day rolling average of the Dubai crude Platts Arab Gulf Mean rose from $114.15 to $114.65 a barrel, while the Aramco crude premium of minus $1.50, the government-approved freight and insurance cost of $8.00 and the $38.00 high-speed diesel crack all held. Cost and freight therefore rose by 50 cents, from $158.65 to $159.15.
In rupees, the rolling State Bank exchange rate slipped by a paisa, from Rs276.97 to Rs276.96 a dollar, but the cost-and-freight line still rose from Rs276.38 to Rs277.24 a litre, taking diesel’s cost at Karachi port from Rs276.59 to Rs277.44.
Everything below that line held still. The exchange-rate adjustment stayed at zero, customs duty stayed at Rs15.68 a litre, the inland freight equalisation margin at Rs4.70, the oil marketing companies’ margin at Rs7.87 and the dealers’ margin at Rs9.98. The price before levies and taxes rose from Rs314.82 to Rs315.67, and the Rs80 petroleum levy and the Rs5 climate support levy were added unchanged to reach Rs400.67.
Why petrol stayed put
Petrol’s own benchmark did not move at all. Its rolling Platts Arab Gulf Mean average was $121.28 a barrel on both days, the premium including freight stayed at $19.88, and cost and freight stayed at $141.16.
The only movement was the rupee, and it was small: a one-paisa fall in the rolling rate took the cost-and-freight figure from Rs245.93 to Rs245.90 and petrol’s cost at Karachi port from Rs246.59 to Rs246.56. The inland freight equalisation margin then rose by two paisas, from Rs7.91 to Rs7.93, which returned the price before levies and taxes to exactly the Rs292.91 published on Thursday. With customs duty at Rs20.56 and the two levies at Rs85, the published petrol price stayed at Rs377.91.
What it means at the pump
Of every litre of diesel, Rs85 is levy, about 21 per cent of the Rs400.67 published price, alongside Rs15.68 of customs duty. On petrol, the same Rs85 is about 22 per cent of Rs377.91, alongside Rs20.56 of customs duty.
Diesel is what goods transporters, buses, farm tractors and generators burn. Profit by Pakistan Today reported that the increase could marginally raise operating costs for goods transporters, public transport operators, farmers and other diesel-dependent consumers.
The relief scheme that cushions small vehicles works on the other fuel. On 13 September, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a reduction of Rs100 a litre for motorcycles, three-wheeler rickshaws and cars with engines of up to 800cc, which The Express Tribune reported would cover an estimated 11.8 million beneficiaries, with relief of up to Rs2,000 a month for two-wheelers and Rs3,000 for small cars. The same report noted that the government had reintroduced fuel conservation measures on 17 September, closing shops by 9pm and restaurants by 11pm.
Crude was falling on Thursday even as diesel rose here. Brent futures were down 40 cents, or 0.35 per cent, to $114.92 a barrel by early afternoon in New York, and US West Texas Intermediate was down 66 cents, or 0.64 per cent, at $102.12, as hopes of renewed US-Iran talks offset supply-disruption fears, The Express Tribune reported. The same report said the Yemeni army had targeted Saudi Aramco in a wave of missile attacks, and that US Vice President JD Vance had written to Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, seeking to revive peace negotiations.
That divergence is the pricing mechanism at work. OGRA’s publication notes that the full impact of a revision in international prices is passed on over seven working days, so Friday’s diesel figure reflects a week of crude prices rather than Thursday’s session, and petrol’s benchmark had not moved yet.
What it means for the levy talks
The disputed line is the Rs80 petroleum levy, and Friday’s publication left it exactly where it was. The government and Jamaat-e-Islami agreed on 27 October to form a six-member committee to widen the fuel relief scheme and prepare proposals for phasing out the levy, which KhabarWire reported at the time. The campaign is tracked in the Jamaat-e-Islami petroleum levy file.
The arithmetic of Friday’s publication also sets a limit on what the daily mechanism can deliver. It moves the benchmark-driven part of the price, not the levy, and a phased reduction in the Rs80 line would have to be carried in the budget rather than announced through a price publication.
What is still uncertain
No committee recommendation has been published, and the joint committee still has no published terms of reference, meeting date or deadline.
Neither the Petroleum Division nor the regulator has explained the revision in policy terms. The division attributes it to changes in international petroleum markets, including Platts benchmark rates, premiums and incidental costs; OGRA’s document sets out only the arithmetic that produces the two numbers.
The published prices are ex-depot, so what a driver actually pays still includes the cost of moving fuel from the depot to the pump, which differs by city and by dealer.
And Friday’s rates are not fixed for long. OGRA publishes a price publication every day, and the rolling averages that drive them are still moving. The fuel and energy file tracks these decisions, alongside the September small-vehicle relief scheme that cushions the petrol buyers the levy talks are about.
