Reporting snapshot · 29 October 2026 (Asia/Karachi). The rates below apply to a single day under a mechanism that reprices fuel every morning, so the pump price can move again within days, and the notification for 30 October had not been published at the time of writing. The main limitation is that the component arithmetic comes from the regulator's own price publication: it shows exactly how Rs377.91 and Rs399.82 are built, but no statement explaining the revision has been published.
What changed on 29 October
On Wednesday, 28 October 2026, the Petroleum Division notified an increase in the price of petrol and high-speed diesel with effect from Thursday, 29 October. Petrol rises by Rs1.85 a litre to Rs377.91 and high-speed diesel by Rs1.75 to Rs399.82, according to Dawn, which noted that the diesel rate now sits just under Rs400. The Express Tribune reported the same two figures from the same notification, and Geo News said the government had raised both products, citing fluctuations in the international market.
The regulator’s document is the most granular version of the same decision. OGRA’s price publication effective 29 October 2026 sets petrol at Rs377.91 a litre, excluding the cost of moving fuel from a company depot to the pump, and high-speed diesel at Rs399.82 on the same basis.
The direction has changed too. Yesterday petrol fell Rs3.19 while diesel rose Rs2.25, a reversal OGRA’s 28 October publication shows came from a customs-duty line dropping from Rs26.27 to Rs20.56 and the exchange-rate adjustment falling to zero. Today both fuels rose together, leaving petrol Rs1.34 below the Rs379.25 it stood at on 27 October.
Where the Rs1.85 came from
Comparing OGRA’s 27 October publication, the 28 October one and the 29 October one, the arithmetic is unusually clean this time. Every line except the input price held still.
The seven-working-day rolling average of the Platts Arab Gulf Mean for petrol rose from $120.21 to $121.28 a barrel, while the premium and freight component held at $19.88. Cost and freight therefore rose from $140.09 to $141.16, and the same calculation in rupees lifted that line from Rs244.07 to Rs245.93, with the rupee’s average rate slipping only marginally, from Rs276.99 to Rs276.97 a dollar.
Every other line in the formula held still: the exchange-rate adjustment stayed at zero, customs duty stayed at Rs20.56 a litre, the inland freight equalisation margin stayed at Rs7.91, the oil marketing companies’ margin at Rs7.87 and the dealers’ margin at Rs9.98. The fixed charges did not move either, with the petroleum levy at Rs80 and the climate support levy at Rs5.
Diesel followed the same path. The Dubai Platts Arab Gulf Mean average rose from $113.13 to $114.15 a barrel, customs duty held at Rs15.68, and the price before levies and taxes went from Rs313.07 to Rs314.82, a rise of Rs1.75.
OGRA’s publication notes that the full impact of a revision in international prices is passed on over seven working days, which is why a seven-day average rather than a single day’s benchmark drives the number.
What did not change
The lines at the centre of the political argument are fixed. Rs85 of every petrol litre is still levies — the Rs80 petroleum levy and the Rs5 climate support levy, both notified under the Petroleum Product (Petroleum Levy) and Climate Support Levy Ordinance of 1961. That is about 22 per cent of the Rs377.91 published petrol price, and about 21 per cent of the Rs399.82 diesel rate. Dawn put the wider burden higher still, reporting that taxes and duties amount to Rs114 a litre on petrol and Rs100 a litre on diesel.
Geo News, citing an official document on the daily pricing framework, reported that the petroleum levy cannot exceed the limit approved by the federal cabinet and that any change to the levy rate requires the approval of the Finance Division. The mechanism that sets the price daily therefore cannot by itself deliver the relief Jamaat-e-Islami is demanding.
The import rules in the same document bear on availability rather than price. Geo reported that high-speed diesel imports are to be routed exclusively through Pakistan State Oil, that oil marketing companies may import petrol in line with their market shares, and that companies failing to meet import obligations and upliftment requirements will not be granted fresh import permissions for up to nine months.
Why the numbers are moving now
The Express Tribune reported that Brent futures rose $1.81, or 1.6 per cent, to $115.69 a barrel at 10:42am EDT on Wednesday, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.52, or 2.5 per cent, to $102.42, as continued fighting in Yemen and an attack on a refinery in Saudi Arabia renewed concerns about further supply disruption. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at the US firm BOK Financial, said crude futures were once again pricing in tighter near-term supply.
The daily mechanism itself is the government’s response to the same volatility. Geo reported that Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik said the daily prices are based on a seven-day average of international market prices, and that OGRA can announce prices without prior approval from the prime minister or the federal government, with Friday’s prices held over the weekend. Weekly revisions had already been introduced in March, and Dawn reported that Malik announced the switch to daily fixing on 17 July as hostilities between Iran and the United States disrupted energy flows.
What it means for the relief talks
The revision lands while the government and Jamaat-e-Islami are negotiating over the levy itself. Dawn reported that on Tuesday JI chief Hafiz Naeemur Rehman met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad, that the two agreed to form a joint committee of the party and the government to consider expanding the fuel relief scheme offered to motorcycle, rickshaw and vehicle owners with engines of up to 800cc, and that Rehman said the party would march to Islamabad in protest against the petroleum levy in mid-November if the government did not announce major relief by then. The Express Tribune reported from the same meeting that a six-member committee, three members from each side, will prepare proposals for a phased reduction in the levy, that the party had called for the levy to be abolished outright, and that the prime minister’s office said 12.7 million people had registered under the relief programme.
That programme was announced on 13 September, The Express Tribune reported, as a relief of Rs100 a litre on petrol for motorcycles, three-wheeler rickshaws and cars of up to 800cc, with an estimated 11.8 million beneficiaries, including around 10 million two-wheeler and 800,000 three-wheeler users on 20 litres a month.
Supply, rather than price, is the other live question. Dawn reported that the Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association urged consumers not to resort to panic buying, and that senators raised concerns about fuel supply even as Minister of State for Finance and Revenue Bilal Azhar Kayani said there were no supply issues. The same report noted that high-speed diesel peaked at Rs520.35 on 3 April and petrol at Rs458.41 on the same date, having started rising from Rs281 and Rs266 respectively after the US-Iran war broke out on 28 February.
What is still uncertain
The relief committee has not reported, and no date for its recommendations has been published. Because a change to the levy needs Finance Division approval, the six-member committee can recommend a phased reduction but cannot change the Rs80 line by itself, and today’s publication shows the line untouched.
The regulator has published no explanation of this revision beyond the arithmetic, and neither has the Petroleum Division. The published prices are ex-depot, so what a driver actually pays still includes the cost of moving fuel from the depot to the pump.
Finally, none of this settles the number for tomorrow: OGRA publishes a price publication every day. Dawn put the wider record in view — petrol at Rs458.41 and diesel at Rs520.35 in April against Rs377.91 and Rs399.82 today.
The fuel and energy file tracks these decisions, and this revision sits alongside the 28 October fuel price revision, the government and JI fuel relief committee and the September small-vehicle relief scheme.
