Reporting snapshot · 2 October 2026. The Petroleum Division notified a single-day revision that lifts petrol by Rs3.26 to Rs390.66 a litre and trims high-speed diesel by Rs1.01 to Rs399.34. The petroleum levy and other federal duties remain unchanged from the 30 September schedule. The new rates take effect at midnight and may move again when the next notification lands on 3 October; global crude, the unresolved US–Iran conflict, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant swing factors.
What happened
The federal government has increased petrol by Rs3.26 a litre and reduced high-speed diesel (HSD) by Rs1.01 for 2 October 2026 under the daily pricing mechanism it adopted in July. A Petroleum Division notification, issued late on 1 October, set petrol at Rs390.66 a litre, up from Rs387.40, and HSD at Rs399.34, down from Rs400.35, the Associated Press of Pakistan reported. The revised rates took effect at midnight and run for a single day under the daily-pricing framework.
It is the fourth notification in five business days and the first to send the two products in opposite directions. The 1 October revision cut petrol by 14 paisas and HSD by Rs1.89, the 30 September notification cut petrol by Rs1.49 and HSD by Rs2.73, and the 29 September notification cut petrol by Rs2.27 and HSD by Rs3.56. Over the three prior moves, HSD had come down by Rs8.18 and petrol by Rs3.90. Petrol has now climbed back above Rs390 a litre for the first time since 16 September, while HSD is at its lowest since mid-August.
The Express Tribune’s business desk carried the same notification, reporting petrol at Rs390.66 and HSD at Rs399.34. Geo News separately flagged the move under the headline “Govt hikes petrol price to over Rs390 per litre”, and the headline pair with the diesel cut was reproduced on the Geo business page.
Why it matters
The split verdict is a window into how the daily-pricing formula works. Pakistan moved to daily ex-depot notifications in July 2026, replacing the fortnightly cycle, and the Petroleum Division resets rates each midnight using a rolling seven-day average of international refined-product prices. Petrol and HSD track different products on the global benchmark — petrol is closer to gasoline-grade refined product, while HSD follows diesel — so when the two benchmarks diverge, the local notifications diverge with them. Tribune reporting on 30 September had already noted the gap closing as crude prices rose, and that pattern hardened in the 2 October notification.
The wider macro context has tightened. International Brent rose on 1 October after Chinese refiners suspended exports of oil products beyond Hong Kong and Macau, pushing the regional refining margin that the daily formula references higher. The unresolved US–Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant swing factors in the imported-product input the federation uses, and any escalation typically feeds through to the petrol side first because gasoline is more sensitive to shipping risk than road diesel is.
For consumers, the headline change is small — Rs3.26 a litre on petrol and Rs1.01 on HSD — but it lands against a backdrop of three straight days of cuts, which had begun to pull the weekly fill cost for goods that was previously on the rise. The Prime Minister’s fuel-relief scheme, which delivers a Rs500 fuel subsidy a month to registered consumers with a motorcycle or rickshaw, absorbs the marginal petrol rise for those registered users, but it does not cover HSD or larger vehicles. The combined effect on household transport and freight depends on which grade dominates local fuel demand: petrol for cars and two-wheelers, HSD for trucks, buses, tractors, and most commercial fleets.
The federal petroleum levy and GST on the two products are unchanged from the 30 September schedule, so the headline change reflects the importer-plus-dealer pass-through of international refined-product prices, not a tax move.
What is still uncertain
- Whether the 3 October notification reverses the petrol hike or extends it depends on the Brent and Platton benchmarks over the next 24 hours, and any escalation in the US–Iran conflict or a further closure of shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf would lift petrol again.
- Whether the provincial and federal Petroleum Levy and GST schedule is reset in the next budget cycle, which would change the ex-depot pass-through formula, remains undecided. The current rates assume the 30 September levy schedule.
- Whether the up-to-date Prime Minister’s Fuel Relief Scheme registration base (last publicly reported at 5.8 million people) covers a larger share of the petrol-using vehicle fleet remains undisclosed; the scheme’s IT ministry update is from late September, before the 2 October notification.
- Whether HSD continues to ease depends on whether diesel-grade refined-product supply normalises as Chinese exports resume or stays restricted.
Sources & reporting notes
This is a synthesis of published material, not eyewitness reporting. Sources were reviewed on 2 October 2026.
- Primary source — APP: Petrol price increased by Rs3.26 per litre, diesel reduced by Rs1.01Published 1 October 2026, 11:24 pm PKT · Confirms the 2 October 2026 ex-depot rates of Rs390.66 a litre for petrol and Rs399.34 for HSD under the daily pricing mechanism.
- Independent source — The Express Tribune: Govt increases petrol by Rs3.26, cuts diesel by Rs1.01 for Oct 2Updated 2 October 2026, ~1 hour before publication · Carries the same notification, and adds context on the seven-day averaging window and the daily-pricing formula.
- Second independent source — Geo News: Govt hikes petrol price to over Rs390 per litreUpdated 1–2 October 2026 · Flags the petrol rise above Rs390 and reproduces the diesel-cut figure; situates the move inside a three-day prior streak of cuts.
