Reporting snapshot · 6 October 2026 (Asia/Karachi). The Ministry of Finance's Central Monitoring Unit (CMU) put federal state-owned enterprises' total debt at Rs10.1 trillion by the end of December 2025 in a monitoring report published on 5 October, [The Express Tribune reported on 6 October](https://tribune.com.pk/story/2633174/soes-debt-soars-to-rs101-trillion). The number is Rs7.1 trillion, or 242 percent, higher than the State Bank of Pakistan's SOE debt and liabilities figure of Rs2.95 trillion. The report comes two days before the [IMF mission's fourth review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility was scheduled to close](/blog/imf-pakistan-mefp-draft-october-2026-10-03/), and its numbers conflict with claims by the government, the Fund and the World Bank that SOE governance and circular-debt control have improved.
What happened
The Ministry of Finance’s Central Monitoring Unit (CMU) said on Monday in its half-yearly SOE monitoring report for July-December 2025 that federal state-owned enterprises’ total debt reached Rs10.1 trillion by the end of December 2025, up Rs1.3 trillion, or 14.3 percent, year-on-year. Tribune’s bureau, which first reported the figures, noted that the CMU number was Rs7.1 trillion, or 242 percent, higher than the public debt and liabilities of SOEs reported by the State Bank of Pakistan in its bulletin, which put the same figure at Rs2.95 trillion through December 2025.
The CMU put per-working-day losses of SOEs at Rs2.8 billion (Rs730 billion annually) and per-day fiscal support at Rs6.6 billion (Rs1.7 trillion a year). The combined annual impact of Rs2.5 trillion is Rs1.5 trillion more than the federal development budget. The report stated that “financial engineering and debt re-profiling measures alone remain insufficient” to address the circular-debt problem in the power sector.
The CMU said the broader SOE balance sheet remains highly leveraged, including Rs2.6 trillion in foreign-currency-denominated liabilities, exposing the sovereign to exchange-rate pass-through risk and refinancing pressure. The government gave Rs2.1 trillion in cash development loans to SOEs as of December, up Rs416 billion, or 25 percent, in a year; foreign loans jumped 40 percent to Rs2.6 trillion; banks gave Rs3.1 trillion in loans to SOEs; and unfunded pension liabilities rose 11 percent to Rs2 trillion. Pakistan’s combined circular debt rose to Rs3.3 trillion, and despite partial warehousing through Central Power Purchasing Agency-linked financing arrangements, the stock still increased during the six-month period.
Why it matters
The gap between the two SOE-debt tallies matters because the central bank’s figures are the ones the IMF, World Bank and credit-rating agencies typically use. Tribune’s account says the CMU findings contradict claims by the federal government, the Fund and the Bank that internal financing reforms have reduced the circular-debt stock and flow. If the CMU’s Rs10.1 trillion is the more accurate measure of contingent liabilities, the federal government’s fiscal position is weaker than headline SBP statistics imply, with knock-on effects for the Dec 2027 DISCO privatisation plan and the Rs110 billion NFC plan on 4 October.
The CMU identifies a “concentration risk” in profitable SOEs: a small group in oil and financial sectors effectively subsidises broader systemic losses, and the oil sector itself is materially exposed to commodity-price volatility with limited hedging. The CMU also flagged two latent contingent obligations — sovereign guarantees exceeding Rs2.1 trillion and unfunded pension liabilities approaching Rs1.9 trillion — that could crystallise into direct federal liabilities under stress, and warned that IFRS 9 Expected Credit Loss provisioning in oil and gas could trigger incremental provisioning shocks approaching Rs500 billion.
The CMU’s per-day loss and fiscal-support numbers are a stress test for the political timeline of the fourth review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, which together with the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility would unlock about $1.2 billion in additional disbursements. The political backdrop has hardened too, with PTI’s long march collapsing the government-PTI talks on 5 October and the KP government announcing a Rs799 billion war-on-terror fund on 3 October, making it harder for the Finance Ministry to project confidence on the SOE numbers.
What is still uncertain
The most important open question is whether the Rs7.1 trillion gap between the CMU and SBP figures will be reconciled publicly. Tribune’s account says the report “negate[s] the claims” of the government, the IMF and the World Bank on circular-debt progress, but the Ministry of Finance has not, as of the morning of 6 October, published the underlying methodology on either side. A second open question is what share of the Rs10.1 trillion debt is attributable to the distribution companies that the Privatisation Commission told the IMF on 4 October it intends to sell by the end of 2027.
A third open question is the trajectory of circular debt itself: the CMU’s Rs3.3 trillion combined stock is higher than the Rs1.675 trillion figure the IMF cited in the MEFP draft shared on 3 October, and the per-day flows indicate the stock is rising rather than stabilising. Equity injections during the first half of the last fiscal year surged by 190 percent to Rs225 billion, but these were largely one-off injections to clear IPP obligations; even so, the stock increased by Rs143 billion. The CMU said the publication of the report was delayed and came two days before the end of the IMF talks.
Sources & reporting notes
This is a synthesis of published material, not eyewitness reporting. Sources were reviewed on 6 October 2026 (Asia/Karachi). The Rs10.1 trillion federal SOE debt figure, the Rs7.1 trillion / 242 percent gap with the SBP Rs2.95 trillion figure, the per-day losses of Rs2.8 billion, the per-day fiscal support of Rs6.6 billion, the Rs3.3 trillion combined circular-debt stock, the 190 percent surge in equity injections to Rs225 billion, the Rs143 billion stock increase, the Rs2.1 trillion sovereign guarantees, the Rs1.9 trillion unfunded pension liabilities, and the potential Rs500 billion IFRS 9 ECL shock all rest on The Express Tribune's 6 October story. The SBP's competing Rs2.95 trillion SOE debt and liabilities figure is drawn from the SBP Bulletin cited in Tribune's report. The October 2026 IMF mission context, including the Rs110 billion NFC-arrears deduction the federal government told the IMF it would pursue on 4 October, is drawn from KhabarWire's 4 October piece. The DISCO Dec 2027 privatisation timeline and the IMF's reservation about the post-privatisation uniform tariff are drawn from KhabarWire's 5 October piece. The IMF's first MEFP draft, the Rs1.675 trillion power circular-debt stock figure cited therein and the political timeline for the fourth review are drawn from KhabarWire's 3 October piece. The PTI long march and government-PTI talks collapse on 5 October is drawn from KhabarWire's 5 October piece. The KP government's Rs799 billion war-on-terror fund announcement of 3 October is drawn from KhabarWire's 3 October piece. The CMU has not published its underlying methodology; the SBP bulletin has not, as of 6 October, published a reconciliation note.
- The Express Tribune — SOEs' debt soars to Rs10.1 trillion6 October 2026 · Tribune bureau's account of the Ministry of Finance CMU's half-yearly SOE monitoring report for July-December 2025; the Rs10.1 trillion federal SOE debt figure, the Rs7.1 trillion and 242 percent gap with the SBP Rs2.95 trillion figure, the per-day losses of Rs2.8 billion and per-day fiscal support of Rs6.6 billion, the Rs3.3 trillion combined circular-debt stock, the 190 percent equity-injection surge to Rs225 billion, the Rs143 billion stock increase, the Rs2.1 trillion sovereign guarantees, the Rs1.9 trillion unfunded pension liabilities, and the potential Rs500 billion IFRS 9 ECL shock.
- The Express Tribune — Govt sets bold DISCO sale deadline4 October 2026 · Shahbaz Rana's account of the December 2027 deadline to privatise nine DISCOs in four batches, excluding Quetta, the IMF's reservation about the post-privatisation uniform tariff, the PIA Holding Company losses rising from Rs673 billion to Rs817 billion, and the Commission's defence of the pensioner-liability SPV.
- State Bank of Pakistan — Statistical Bulletin (September 2026)30 September 2026 · The SBP's monthly statistical bulletin, including the SOE debt and liabilities figure of Rs2.95 trillion through December 2025 cited by Tribune. The SBP has not, as of 6 October, published a reconciliation note against the CMU's Rs10.1 trillion number.
