Reporting snapshot · 1 October 2026. The Petroleum Division notified these rates for a single day under the daily pricing framework, and they took effect at midnight. Rates notified for one day can move again for 2 October, and the unresolved US–Iran conflict and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz remain the main risks. The petroleum levy and other taxes are unchanged from the 30 September notification.
What happened
The federal government has cut petrol by 14 paisas and high-speed diesel by Rs1.89 a litre for 1 October 2026 under the daily pricing mechanism it adopted in July. A Petroleum Division notification set petrol at Rs387.40 a litre, down from Rs387.54, and high-speed diesel (HSD) at Rs400.35, down from Rs402.24, Geo News reported. The revised rates took effect on Thursday, 1 October.
It is the third consecutive business-day notification to reduce both grades. The 30 September revision cut petrol by Rs1.49 and HSD by Rs2.73, and the 29 September notification cut petrol by Rs2.27 and HSD by Rs3.56. Over the three notifications, HSD has come down by Rs8.18 a litre and petrol by Rs3.90. Petrol has now slipped back below Rs388 a litre, roughly Rs3 lower than it was at the start of the week.
Why both fuels fell again while crude rose
Wednesday’s move ran against the direction of the crude market. Brent’s November futures contract, which was due to expire that day, rose $1.12, or 1 per cent, to $103.71 a barrel by 10:50am ET, while the more actively traded December contract gained $2.65, or 2.8 per cent, to $98.81. US West Texas Intermediate rose $1.98, or 2.2 per cent, to $91.98, the Express Tribune reported.
The gap is explained by the mechanism rather than by a change of policy. The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) sets domestic ex-depot prices from the average of international market prices over the previous seven days, so a single day’s rally in crude does not feed through immediately. Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik has said the daily prices are based on that seven-day average, in line with international practice, Geo News reported. What matters for Pakistan is the Platts Arab Gulf assessments for gasoline and gasoil over that window, not the headline Brent print on the day of the notification.
The broader market backdrop remains tight. Oil prices rose on Wednesday and stayed on track for significant monthly gains as US–Iran peace talks stalled and US fuel markets tightened, according to the Tribune. Analysts at the Japanese bank MUFG said recovering crude flows should temper supply-driven price pressure, “although persistent product shortages and elevated freight costs are likely to keep the broader energy market tight.” Goldman Sachs estimated that Gulf oil exports had recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the previous week, in line with their 2025 average, after exports doubled in September.
What it means for households and freight
For households, the petrol cut is negligible at 14 paisas, while the diesel reduction is the more consequential number. HSD powers buses, trucks, tractors and heavy machinery, so a Rs1.89 reduction trims input costs across freight and agriculture, though it does not pass through one-for-one into fares and freight rates.
The reductions sit alongside the government’s other responses to high fuel costs. The upgraded relief scheme offers Rs100 a litre off petrol for motorcycles, three-wheeler rickshaws and cars with engines up to 800cc, covering an estimated 11.8 million beneficiaries, with officials putting registrations at several million. The austerity and fuel-conservation measures notified on 17 September require shops, markets and malls to close by 9pm and restrict public events; a modest daily price cut does not unwind those restrictions.
Even after three days of reductions, pump prices remain far above the pre-conflict baseline. Petrol and HSD peaked at Rs458.41 and Rs520.35 a litre on 3 April 2026, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, compared with roughly Rs266 and Rs281 before the war. About Rs114 a litre in taxes and duties on petrol, and about Rs100 on diesel, keeps the headline price elevated even as the import-cost component falls.
The daily pricing framework
The federal cabinet moved to daily pricing on 17 July 2026, after the February outbreak of the US–Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried about a fifth of global energy supplies. Under the framework, OGRA issues daily ex-depot prices for petrol and high-speed diesel without fresh approval from the prime minister or the cabinet for each change, and rates notified on Fridays hold through the weekend.
The official document seen by Geo News also set revised import arrangements for the current fiscal year. High-speed diesel imports are to be routed exclusively through the state-owned Pakistan State Oil, while oil marketing companies may import petrol in line with their market shares. Companies that fail to meet their import or upliftment obligations will not be granted fresh import permissions for up to nine months. Kerosene oil and light diesel oil prices are likewise set daily.
What is still uncertain
The 1 October rates apply for a single day. A fresh Petroleum Division notification is expected for 2 October and could move either grade in either direction, depending on how the latest Platts window closes and on the direction of crude markets.
The US–Iran conflict remains unresolved. Qatari mediators continued shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington over a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar said it hoped the talks could produce a breakthrough. Saudi Arabia has resumed tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu, improving the export outlook. Any renewed fighting, Houthi attacks on Saudi shipping or a further closure of Hormuz would feed quickly into Pakistan’s import costs and pump prices.
Domestic policy is also in flux. The petroleum levy and other taxes remain within the cabinet-approved limit but are under periodic review, and officials have said the government aims to deregulate petrol pricing by June 2027. As with earlier revisions, this is a dated snapshot: a single day of international price movement can bring a new notification within hours.
Sources & reporting notes
This is a synthesis of published reporting and the Petroleum Division notification, not independent on-the-ground reporting. The cited pages were reviewed on 1 October 2026.
- OGRA — Notified petroleum pricesPrimary record · The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority's publication of the Petroleum Division's notified ex-depot prices, referenced for the 1 October 2026 rates.
- Geo News — "Govt cuts petrol price by Re0.14, HSD by Rs1.89 per litre"30 September 2026 · The new rates, the 1 October effective date, OGRA's daily price publication, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik's seven-day-average explanation, the daily pricing framework, and the revised FY2026-27 import arrangements.
- Express Tribune — "Govt decreases petrol by 14 paisas, diesel by Rs1.89 for Oct 1"30 September 2026 · Independent confirmation of the rates and effective date, the comparison with the 30 September cut, the 17 July move to daily pricing, the Brent and WTI levels, and the Goldman Sachs and MUFG assessments.
