What the data showed
Pakistan’s current account swung to a surplus of $1.07 billion in March 2026, up from a $231 million surplus in February, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Wednesday. The March figure was the second-highest monthly outcome on record, behind only $1.2bn in March 2025, and was the third consecutive monthly surplus in calendar 2026, Adviser to the Finance Minister Khurram Schehzad said on X. The account had slipped into a $244 million deficit in December.
“Pakistan’s external account continues to strengthen, delivering a third consecutive monthly surplus in 2026,” Schehzad wrote. He described the March numbers as “among the strongest monthly outcomes on record” and said Pakistan’s “external sector is firming up, with sustained surpluses signalling improving balance of payments stability.”
Why the surplus widened
The SBP said the wider surplus reflected a significant reduction in imports, with goods and services trade deficits narrowing and remittances remaining robust. Arif Habib Limited noted that on a cumulative basis, Pakistan had recorded a current account surplus of $8 million in the first nine months of fiscal year 2025-26, against a surplus of $1.674bn during the same period a year earlier. Topline Securities said the month-on-month expansion was driven by a lower goods and services deficit and by higher remittances.
The March data followed Pakistan’s receipt of funds from Saudi Arabia, which has helped shore up foreign exchange buffers ahead of an upcoming loan repayment to the United Arab Emirates. Geo News reported on Friday that the SBP release on Thursday had reinforced market sentiment as the rupee and external accounts stabilised despite the global energy shock from the war on Iran.
What is still uncertain
The nine-month fiscal-year surplus of $8 million is barely positive and trails the year-ago period by more than $1.6bn, leaving the full-year outcome dependent on the final quarter’s trade and remittance flows. The March figure also fell 16pc year-on-year against the $1.2bn recorded in March 2025. Whether the momentum in remittances and import compression will persist through the remaining months of FY26, especially with the UAE repayment ahead, will determine whether the cumulative surplus widens or contracts by the close of the fiscal year in June. For context on how credit agencies are framing the same external picture, see KhabarWire’s coverage of Fitch affirming Pakistan’s B rating.
